NCAA Division I-FBS Rankings

January 19, 2017

Overall Rank Team Wins Losses Average Win Probability v. Generic P5 Team Win Probability from Adjusted Record v. Generic P5 Team Win Probability from Adjusted Record Rank Win Probability from Point Margin v. Generic P5 Team Win Probability from Point Margin Rank
1 Alabama 14 1 0.968 0.962 2 0.975 1
2 Clemson 14 1 0.950 0.969 1 0.931 2
3 Ohio St 11 2 0.929 0.927 3 0.930 4
4 Washington 12 2 0.894 0.882 4 0.906 5
5 Michigan 10 3 0.892 0.853 5 0.931 2
6 Florida St 10 3 0.812 0.846 6 0.777 9
7 Wisconsin 11 3 0.806 0.844 7 0.767 10
8 Oklahoma 11 2 0.802 0.801 9 0.804 8
9 LSU 8 4 0.800 0.779 12 0.822 6
10 Penn St 11 3 0.788 0.826 8 0.750 12
11 Louisville 9 4 0.756 0.704 22 0.809 7
12 USC 10 3 0.748 0.770 13 0.726 15
13 Auburn 8 5 0.729 0.710 21 0.748 13
14 Oklahoma St 10 3 0.716 0.730 17 0.701 17
15 Virginia Tech 10 4 0.714 0.694 24 0.733 14
16 Stanford 10 3 0.706 0.783 10 0.628 23
17 Colorado 10 4 0.704 0.717 20 0.691 18
18 North Carolina 8 5 0.699 0.726 18 0.672 20
19 Miami FL 9 4 0.696 0.630 31 0.763 11
20 Tennessee 9 4 0.686 0.780 11 0.593 26
21 Florida 9 4 0.684 0.754 15 0.613 25
22 Kansas St 9 4 0.673 0.670 27 0.676 19
23 West Virginia 10 3 0.668 0.698 23 0.639 22
24 W Michigan 13 1 0.662 0.759 14 0.566 27
25 Texas A&M 8 5 0.660 0.668 28 0.652 21
26 Pittsburgh 8 5 0.651 0.675 26 0.626 24
27 Washington St 8 5 0.629 0.552 38 0.706 16
28 Georgia Tech 9 4 0.626 0.723 19 0.529 30
29 Nebraska 9 4 0.588 0.751 16 0.426 42
30 Iowa 8 5 0.577 0.631 30 0.523 31
31 WKU 11 3 0.570 0.590 36 0.550 28
32 Minnesota 9 4 0.542 0.592 35 0.491 34
33 Georgia 8 5 0.540 0.680 25 0.401 43
34 NC State 7 6 0.535 0.533 41 0.537 29
35 South Florida 11 2 0.530 0.660 29 0.399 44
36 Utah 9 4 0.516 0.516 42 0.517 32
37 Arkansas 7 6 0.500 0.605 34 0.394 45
38 Mississippi 5 7 0.498 0.509 46 0.488 35
39 Northwestern 7 6 0.496 0.497 47 0.494 33
40 Temple 10 4 0.471 0.512 44 0.429 41
41 Kentucky 7 6 0.470 0.615 33 0.324 60
42 BYU 9 4 0.460 0.477 48 0.443 40
43 Baylor 7 6 0.456 0.440 54 0.472 37
44 Boise St 10 3 0.453 0.536 40 0.370 52
45 Appalachian St 10 3 0.452 0.624 32 0.280 68
46 Vanderbilt 6 7 0.448 0.537 39 0.358 55
47 Houston 9 4 0.436 0.418 58 0.453 38
48 Tulsa 10 3 0.422 0.457 50 0.387 47
49 South Carolina 6 7 0.412 0.588 37 0.236 72
50 Notre Dame 4 8 0.408 0.335 67 0.480 36
51 TCU 6 7 0.406 0.365 62 0.448 39
52 San Diego St 11 3 0.404 0.434 55 0.375 49
53 Missouri 4 8 0.397 0.469 49 0.326 59
54 Mississippi St 6 7 0.396 0.432 56 0.361 54
55 Memphis 8 5 0.395 0.419 57 0.371 51
56 Navy 9 5 0.394 0.446 52 0.342 57
57 Texas Tech 5 7 0.387 0.402 60 0.372 50
58 Wake Forest 7 6 0.386 0.448 51 0.323 62
59 Boston College 7 6 0.372 0.516 42 0.229 75
59 Troy 10 3 0.372 0.511 45 0.233 74
61 UCLA 4 8 0.342 0.299 73 0.385 48
62 Texas 5 7 0.341 0.288 77 0.394 45
63 Louisiana Tech 9 5 0.340 0.368 61 0.312 64
64 California 5 7 0.334 0.363 64 0.305 66
65 Duke 4 8 0.330 0.304 71 0.356 56
66 Toledo 9 4 0.322 0.326 68 0.318 63
67 Arizona St 5 7 0.314 0.321 69 0.308 65
68 Indiana 6 7 0.301 0.266 82 0.336 58
68 Syracuse 4 8 0.301 0.413 59 0.189 78
70 Michigan St 3 9 0.297 0.226 86 0.368 53
70 Oregon 4 8 0.297 0.289 76 0.305 66
72 Air Force 10 3 0.279 0.350 65 0.208 77
73 Idaho 9 4 0.278 0.446 52 0.109 91
74 Wyoming 8 6 0.272 0.365 62 0.179 79
75 Iowa St 3 9 0.270 0.217 87 0.324 60
76 Oregon St 4 8 0.268 0.255 84 0.280 68
77 Colorado St 7 6 0.267 0.299 73 0.236 72
77 UCF 6 7 0.267 0.261 83 0.273 70
79 Army 8 5 0.262 0.309 70 0.215 76
80 Maryland 6 7 0.260 0.283 79 0.238 71
81 Old Dominion 10 3 0.242 0.341 66 0.144 85
82 Arkansas St 8 5 0.232 0.292 75 0.172 80
83 Ga Southern 5 7 0.206 0.303 72 0.110 90
84 New Mexico 9 4 0.201 0.278 80 0.124 87
85 SMU 5 7 0.194 0.287 78 0.100 93
86 MTSU 8 5 0.182 0.270 81 0.094 95
87 Arizona 3 9 0.165 0.159 93 0.172 80
88 Illinois 3 9 0.162 0.152 94 0.171 82
89 South Alabama 6 7 0.150 0.240 85 0.059 109
90 Southern Miss 7 6 0.148 0.170 92 0.125 86
91 ULL 6 7 0.146 0.216 88 0.077 103
92 Ohio 8 6 0.140 0.134 99 0.147 84
92 Tulane 4 8 0.140 0.174 91 0.106 92
94 Virginia 2 10 0.134 0.100 109 0.167 83
95 Hawaii 7 7 0.128 0.211 89 0.045 111
96 UT San Antonio 6 7 0.124 0.134 99 0.113 89
97 N Illinois 5 7 0.120 0.127 101 0.114 88
98 C Michigan 6 7 0.111 0.135 98 0.087 99
98 E Michigan 7 6 0.111 0.139 97 0.083 101
100 Cincinnati 4 8 0.106 0.124 102 0.089 97
101 Rutgers 2 10 0.103 0.143 96 0.063 106
101 ULM 4 8 0.103 0.188 90 0.018 124
101 Utah St 3 9 0.103 0.120 103 0.085 100
104 East Carolina 3 9 0.102 0.115 107 0.088 98
105 Nevada 5 7 0.098 0.119 105 0.077 103
106 Purdue 3 9 0.092 0.092 112 0.091 96
107 New Mexico St 3 9 0.082 0.147 95 0.017 125
107 UNLV 4 8 0.082 0.117 106 0.047 110
109 Miami OH 6 7 0.080 0.081 113 0.078 102
110 Connecticut 3 9 0.076 0.114 108 0.037 115
111 San Jose St 4 8 0.074 0.120 103 0.028 117
112 North Texas 5 8 0.068 0.096 110 0.040 114
113 Kansas 2 10 0.067 0.034 124 0.100 93
114 Ball St 4 8 0.066 0.072 114 0.061 108
115 Akron 5 7 0.058 0.054 117 0.063 106
115 Bowling Green 4 8 0.058 0.096 110 0.021 120
117 Georgia St 3 9 0.054 0.066 115 0.041 113
118 Massachusetts 2 10 0.047 0.051 119 0.043 112
119 Kent 3 9 0.044 0.024 127 0.065 105
120 UTEP 4 8 0.040 0.057 116 0.023 119
121 Charlotte 4 8 0.034 0.047 121 0.021 120
121 Florida Intl 4 8 0.034 0.049 120 0.020 122
121 Rice 3 9 0.034 0.044 122 0.025 118
124 Marshall 3 9 0.033 0.034 124 0.032 116
125 Texas St 2 10 0.028 0.054 117 0.002 128
126 Buffalo 2 10 0.024 0.036 123 0.013 127
127 FL Atlantic 3 9 0.022 0.028 126 0.016 126
128 Fresno St 1 11 0.016 0.011 128 0.020 122

Description

The Jarratt College Football Rankings are a combination of two statistical models. Both models attempt to best explain each college football game result using several explanatory factors. One model explains wins and losses. The other model explains points on the field, specifically margin of victory and defeat.

The explanatory factors are:

  • home field advantage
  • both teams’ division and Power Five conference memberships
  • individual team strengths

Both models use the same data; only the representation of the outcome changes. For instance, the January 2017 championship game win outcome is represented as Alabama 0, Clemson 1, and its margin of victory outcome is represented as Alabama -4, Clemson +4. To estimate home field advantage, division and Power Five advantage, and individual team strengths, the Jarratt Rankings use Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling via Stan in R through the rethinking R package by Richard McElreath.

The final rankings are the outcome of 1000 simulated games for each team against a generic team for each model in a neutral playing field. For Division I teams, that generic team is a Power Five conference team. For all other divisions, there is no distinction.

Last updated January 19, 2017.